I didn’t have time to do my research like usual pre-tournament so I’m giving the live approach after Round 1 a shot here to mix it up this week. Let’s hit another winner in a row on the PGA Tour here live in a weak field at Port Royal Golf Course for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship to follow up my win on Michael Brennan two weeks ago!

https://www.instagram.com/reel/De02FJRJ4Gn/?psln=aXlpMTBicjhzbjRx

Course Breakdown

Par 71, 6828 yards, built around the Bermuda natural terrain, very short yardage course with most golfers hitting less than driver off the tee on most holes besides the Par 5s, the Par 5s are short with all three under 555 yards and they’re obviously the three easiest holes on the course with the ability for the entire field including the shortest hitters to get there in two, six of the Par 4s are under 400 yards with only one on the course playing over 450 yards (and only from the back tee boxes), all four Par 3s are over 200 yards, average sized fairways with bunkers in the landing areas, lots of elevation changes throughout the course especially off the tee, driving accuracy here is lower than tour average (~55% vs. 62%), Zoysia grass rough shouldn’t be too thick or penal, water in play on seven holes, 87 bunkers, average sized Bermuda grass greens without much slope or undulation and are pretty soft and slow, weather is always a factor here with a ton of wind that changes the way the course plays out each year with it being very easy if there isn’t much wind

Tournament Notes

• This used to be an alternate field event the same week of the WGC-HSBC Championship, which no longer exists
• It’s going to be very windy this week

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Birdie+ Gained

Field

120 golfers – Horrible field strength, the worst of the year, including in the swing season

Last Year’s Champion: Adam Schenk (-12)

Runner Up Last Year: Chandler Phillips (-11)

Players

Corey Conners: 9800: +825 (+2400 pre-tourney) – Has been able to win in much hard courses in the past and is off to a great start here across the board in Round 1, first time playing this event, 43,47,20,39,14,52,7,23 finishes in his last eight events, 13th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Proximity: 100-150 yards, 33rd in Proximity: 200+ yards, 63rd in Par 3 Scoring: 201-225 yards, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 351-400 yards, 62nd in SG: ARG, 57th in Putting, 76th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 63rd in Birdie+ Gained, 60th in Bogie Avoidance, after Round 1 he is in second place and just a stroke off the lead, 6th in Approach in Round 1, 3rd in ballstriking in in Round 1, 1st in SG: OTT in Round 1, 84th in SG: ARG in Round 1, 43rd in Putting in Round 1

Ben Kohles: 9600: +850 (+3300 pre-tourney) – Played really well in weak fields late in the season and popped on some leaderboards, was at the top of the leaderboard a few weeks ago but crumbled on Sunday to fall to T15 at the Biltmore Championship, 61,57,39 finishes here, 17,13,15,29,26,9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 20 events, 2nd in Approach, 26th in SG: OTT, 15th in Proximity: 100-150 yards, 7th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 25th in Par 3 Scoring: 201-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 351-400 yards, 21st in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance, after Round 1 he is in second place and just a stroke off the lead, 1st in Approach in Round 1, 2nd in ballstriking in in Round 1, 25th in SG: OTT in Round 1, 20th in SG: ARG in Round 1, 92nd in Putting in Round 1

Chris Kirk: 9500: +3100 (+2800 pre-tourney) – Maps out nicely for the course and I could see him make a bit of a run here in such a weak field, first time playing this event, 21,10,72,8,31,61 finishes in his last six events, 1st in Approach, 51st in SG: OTT, 10th in Proximity: 100-150 yards, 18th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 109th in Par 3 Scoring: 201-225 yards, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring 351-400 yards, 15th in SG: ARG, 100th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 36th in Bogie Avoidance, After Round 1 he is in 20th place and four strokes off the lead, 16th in Approach in Round 1, 19th in ballstriking in in Round 1, 66th in SG: OTT in Round 1, 80th in SG: ARG in Round 1, 46th in Putting in Round 1

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Proximity: 100-150 yards (5%)

Proximity: 200+ yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring: 201-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring 351-400 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Betting Notes

• In 2024, I had Andrew Novak here, who finished second and Justin Lower, who finished T5
• I had no time this week to do my full research pre-tournament like I typically do, and there was no one on the odds board that I had any real feel for without my research. Instead of just completely skipping the week in a tournament that isn’t great, but is usually fun golf, I’m going with a different approach. I still did my full research for the week and built my model as I do pre-tournament weekly. Then I analyzed the leaderboard and the strokes gained data in Round 1 compared to the live odds. Let’s see if it works.
• Smaller card since I was able to drop some of my pre-tournament guys after the first round with how they played in Round 1, but I’m going larger on my bets for those.
• I also think the books being focused on football and not garbage swing season golf, it may be nice to pick up some live plays with the books slacking more than they would in the real season.

Bets

Live Outrights

1.2u Corey Conners (+835)

1.2u Ben Kohles (+850)

.4u Chris Kirk (+3100)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…