This week the PGA Tour stays in Mexico, going to Cabo for the World Wide Technology Championship at El Cardonal Golf Course at Diamante. Let’s hit the winner here two years in a row!
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DfTo5pzOOQL
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7452 yards, Tiger Woods design, easy resort course that Tiger himself said was designed for weekend warriors and not designed for championships, three of the Par 5s should be reachable by the entire field, six of the Par 4s are between 450-500 yards, wide fairways with an average width of 60 yards so it should be very easy to hit (driving accuracy here was an insane 90%, tour average is just 62%), longer than average driving distance (298 yards vs. tour average 284) since guys can just bomb it without having to worry about missing the fairways, there isn’t any rough with just sand and native area if you miss the giant fairways, 48 bunkers, water in play on only one hole, every hole basically has an open front and golfers should be able to run the ball up if they’ like, very slow giant paspalum greens with a 79% GIR percentage (tour average is just 66%)
Tournament Notes
- Fourth year this course has hosted this event. It used to be hosted at Mayakoba before LIV took over that course.
Key Stats
Approach, Birdie+ Gained, Putting
Field
117 golfers – Very weak field strength
Defending Champion: Ben Griffin (-29)
Runner Up Last Year: Chad Ramey, Sami Valimaki (-27)
Players
Ben James: 9900: +1858 – Besides his MC two weeks ago in Bermuda he’s playing fantastic his last few events with three straight T5s finishes and was solo second at the Biltmore Championship, first time playing this event, 16,MC,5,2,3,38,MC,4,15,62,23,54 finishes his last twelve events, 14th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 61st in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Blades Brown: 9500: +3400 – On a great run during this fall swing season, finished solo second two weeks ago at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, first time playing this event, 19,17,MC,11,12,14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 20 events on the PGA Tour, 7th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 70th in Driving Distance, 18th in Par 3 Scoring, 11th in Par 4 Scoring, 48th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 49th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 17th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Kristoff Ventura: 9000: +4000 – Pops in my model again this week after his T2 finish at a very similar course at the Mexico Open last week, his OTT and ballstriking numbers are great, 2,34,41,32,MC,54,5,51,15,5 finishes in his last ten events, finished T27 his only time here last year, 15th in Approach, 1st in SG: OTT, 25th in Driving Distance, 78th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 13th in Par 5 Scoring, 73rd in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Ben Kohles: 8500: +4300 – First in my model this week, played really well in weak fields late in the season and popped on some leaderboards, was at the top of the leaderboard a few weeks ago but crumbled on Sunday to fall to T15 at the Biltmore Championship 17,17,13,15,29,26,9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 21 events, finished T63 his only time here last year, 1st in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 105th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 6th in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in Putting, 11th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance
Trace Crowe: 7700: +6500 – Pops in my model this week, has played well his last several events including a T3 at the Bank of Utah and T11 at the Mexico Open at similar courses, amps out nicely for this course, 11,34,3,24,38,MC,62,34 finishes in his last ten events, WD here his only time here two years ago, 7th in Approach, 48th in SG: OTT, 35th in Driving Distance, 57th in Par 3 Scoring, 35th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 3rd in Par 5 Scoring, 23rd in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 25th in Bogie Avoidance
Billy Horschel: 7300: +7000 – Playing solid lately during the swing season and has pretty good win potential in this strength of field, 21,13,43,12,MC,13 finishes in his last six events, 56,33 finishes here, 6th in Approach, 49th in SG: OTT, 41st in Driving Distance, 41st in Par 3 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 20th in Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards, 21st in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in Putting, 26th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 74th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards (5%)
Par 5 Scoring (10%)
Putting (15%)
Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I hit the winner here last year on Ben Griffin, who was first in my model
Bets
Outrights
.6u Ben James (+1858)
.5u Blades Brown (+3400)
.3u Kristoff Ventura (+4000)
.3u Ben Kohles (+4300)
.2u Trace Crowe (+6500)
.2u Billy Horschel (+7500)
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