Bad day for me on the NHL Playoffs yesterday despite hitting a nice series prop on Carolina, going 3-8 to lose 5.76 units. Let’s bounce back on today’s four big Game 4s!
Game 4: Bruins vs. Sabres (2:00)
My Sabres picked up a huge win on the road in Game 3 as the series shifted to Boston, winning 3-1 with Alex Lyon in goal, the best game they’ve played in this series so far after needing a miracle to come back and win Game 1 at home and then getting killed at Game 2 at home in a 4-2 loss that was way worse than that score looks. Now we have home ice in the series which is huge, but we still have work to do, especially on our horrendous power play, that hasn’t scored in over a month. I’d lean the Bruins tie this series up at home, but no chance I’m betting against my team. I’d slightly lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll lay off this game entirely. Let’s Go Buffalo!!!
Game 4: Kings vs. Avalanche (4:30)
I have been kind of impressed with the way the Kings have played in this series, grinding out tough games and keeping them close, but I expect this series to be over today. The Avalanche are just the way better team and even in these grinds of games, Colorado’s won all three of them. I’ll already win 4 units on the Avs with my series play as long as they don’t lose these next three games in a row, and I already have half a unit at +450 to win another 2.25 units if they complete the sweep today. I’ll double down on that with another unit on the Avs. Since this is an elimination game and I’d expect LA to be down late in this game, I’d slightly lean the over at 5.5, but don’t think it’s worth betting on.
Game 4: Canadiens vs. Lightning (7:00)
This series in the Atlantic has been electric, with all three games going to overtime in these tight games. The Habs now lead the series 2-1, with Lane Hutson being the overtime hero 2:09 into OT at home in Game 3, with an incredible atmosphere in the Bell Centre. I’d very slightly lean Montreal wins here again at home, but I’m conflicted, expecting this series to go to seven games, I think the Bolts tie it up. Clearly I’m not really convinced on the side here, so I’ll lay off it. I’d lean the over again, but not enough to bet that either. I’ll just stick with player props in this one. I’ll parlay Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll individually take Slafkovsky to get over 0.5 point for half a unit.
Game 4: Ducks vs. Oilers (9:30)
This series has been a lot of fun and coming off a big 7-4 win at home in Game 3, the Ducks now lead this series 2-1 after splitting the first two games in Edmonton against the defending back to back Western Conference Championships. Every game has been high scoring and great to watch. I like McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Oilers to tie up the series on the road here and I’ll take them for a unit. I love the over again, which is insanely at 7.5 tonight. Instead I’ll lay the -190, which is nuts, on the alternate over 6.5 for 1.5 units, the most expensive total I’ve ever bet. I’ll also go back to my same player props I had in Game 3 and take Leon Draisaitl to get over 1.5 points for a unit, and individually take Leo Carlsson, Troy Terry, and Cutter Gauthier to each get a point for half a unit each. Just gotta hit two of those guys to be profitable.
Series Bets
2u Dallas Stars – Series Winner (-120)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 6 Games (+200)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 7 Games (+210)
3u Pittsburgh Penguins – Series Winner (-160)
4u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in 6 Games or Less (-185)
.5u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in Exactly 4 Games (+450)
1.5u Buffalo Sabres – Series Winner (-175)
1.5u Vegas Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
1u Avalanche ML (-170)
.5u parlay: Kucherov/Guentzel/Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky 1+ point each (+302)
.5u Juraj Slafkovsky over 0.5 point (-166)
1u Oilers ML (-135)
1.5u Oilers/Ducks over 6.5 (-190)
1u Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (+110)
.5u Leo Carlsson over 0.5 point (-175)
.5u Troy Terry over 0.5 point (-170)
.5u Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 point (-165)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 34-49 (-14.61 units)
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A Town's Zone 