I went 1-2 last night in the NHL, trying to hedge out of my Penguins series bet, losing 3.5 units. Let’s bounce back on tonight’s huge three game slate and have my Sabres close out the Bruins!
Game 5: Sabres vs. Bruins (7:30)
Huge game here in Buffalo tonight as the Sabres can punch their ticket to the second round at home after two fantastic wins on the road in Boston to take a 3-1 series lead. I thought we were lucky to win Game 1 with a spectacular comeback effort, then got killed at home in a 4-2 loss in Game 2 that I thought was worse than the score showed. I was quite nervous heading into Game 3 in Boston, but we played great, winning 3-1 to take home ice back in the series, then we dominated Game 4 on the road on Sunday, blowing out the Bruins 6-1 to put them on the brink of elimination. The fourth win of a series is always the toughest to get, so I’m kind of nervous again for the bounce back effort that Boston is going to put in tonight to try to avoid elimination, but I’m still confident in my boys. I’ll win 1.5 units on the Sabres winning the series, and I’ll double down on them tonight with another unit on the moneyline. I like the over too, especially with this being an elimination game, since if Boston is down, they’ll get aggressive in pulling Swayman, and the over 5.5 has hit in three of the four games in this series, so I’ll take it for a unit. I’ll also parlay David Pastrnak, Tage Thompson, and Alex Tuch to each get a point for half a unit. I’ll also take Peyton Krebs, the empty net wizard for the Sabres, who also has a point in every game of this series and is on the same first line as Tage and Tuch, to get a point for half a unit, at a nice price of +162.
Game 5: Stars vs. Wild (8:00)
This series has been spectacular, with it now a three game series as it shifts back to Dallas, tied up 2-2 after two overtime games in Minnesota. In Game 1 on the road, the Wild dominated their way to a 6-1 win, then the Stars answered back with a much needed 4-2 win at home in Game 2. Game 3 was a grind, going to overtime with Wyatt Johnston winning it for Dallas on the road to take back home ice, on the power play in double overtime. Game 4 went to OT as well, as Matt Boldy was the hero for Minnesota late in the first overtime as they won 3-2 to tie it up. That already guaranteed me to cash one of my two plays for at least a 1.5 unit profit for it to go to either Game 6 or Game 7. I still think Dallas has the slight advantage in this series having home ice for Games 5 and 7, so I do think they win it. I’d lean they win tonight at home to answer back from their home loss in Game 4, but don’t like it enough to bet on it. I do like the over though, which I’ll take for a unit. I’m also right back on all my player props in this one. Besides in Game 4 where Wyatt Johnston and Quinn Hughes (the two guys I doubled down on) didn’t get points, in the first three games, tt’s been just one player away from hitting and if the books keep giving me this price I only have to hit it once all series, so for half a unit I’ll parlay Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Quinn Hughes, Mikko Rantanen, Jason Robertson, and Wyatt Johnston to each get a point. I’m also right back on Quinn Hughes to get an assist for half a unit.
Game 5: Oilers vs. Ducks (10:00)
This has been a really fun series through the first four games, and the defending back to back Western Conference champion Oilers are now facing elimination in the first round, down 3-1 in the series. After Edmonton won Game 1 at home with a 4-3 on a late goal by Kasperi Kapanen, the Ducks have rattled off three straight wins, winning 6-4 on the road in Game 2, dominating in a 7-4 win at home in Game 3 with four third period goals, then winning 4-3 in overtime in Game 4 on Monday, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit to win on Ryan Poehling’s “controversial” (absolutely a goal, I don’t get the uproar on this one) OT winner. I like McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Oilers to extend this series and I’ll take them for half a unit. I love the over again in this game, which has hit over 6.5 pretty easily in every game of this series. I still like it at -160 on most books, and would likely take it for 1.5 units, but I was able to find it at -110 on one of my books, so I’ll take it for 3 units. I also like a bunch of player props in this game, expecting a bunch of goals. I’ll take these all individually with a unit on Leon Draisaitl to get over 1.5 points, and half a unit each on Connor McDavid over 1.5 points, and Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, and Jackson LaCombe (who already has a goal and seven assists this series) to each get a point.
Series Bets
2u Dallas Stars – Series Winner (-120)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 6 Games (+200)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 7 Games (+210)
3u Pittsburgh Penguins – Series Winner (-160)
1.5u Buffalo Sabres – Series Winner (-175)
1.5u Vegas Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
1u Sabres ML (-175)
1u Sabres/Bruins over 5.5 (-125)
.5u parlay: David Pastrnak/Tage Thompson/Alex Tuch 1+ point each (+140)
.5u Peyton Krebs over 0.5 point (+162)
1u Stars/Wild over 5.5 (-130)
.5u parlay: Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes/Rantanen/Robertson/Johnston point each (+550)
.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-160)
.5u Oilers ML (-155)
3u Oilers/Ducks over 6.5 (-110)
1u Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (-120)
.5u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-145)
.5u Leo Carlsson over 0.5 point (-180)
.5u Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 point (-175)
.5u Troy Terry over 0.5 point (-140)
.5u Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 point (-135)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 41-56 (-12.89 units)
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A Town's Zone 